How to Survive an AI Apocalypse – Part 5: Job Elimination
January 20, 2024 4 Comments
PREVIOUS: How to Survive an AI Apocalypse – Part 4: AI Run Amok Scenarios
In Part 4 of this series on Surviving an AI Apocalypse, we looked at a few scenarios where AI could get out of control and wreak havoc on humanity. In this part, we will focus specifically on a situation that is already underway – job elimination.
Of course, job elimination due to technology is nothing new. It has been happening at least since the printing press in the 15th century, although, in that case, Gutenberg’s invention resulted in the generation of all sorts of new jobs that more than made up for the ones the monks lost. And so it has been through the Industrial Revolution. Will the AI revolution be any different?
One obvious difference is the pace of job loss, which increases continuously. That means that, even if there were different replacement jobs that one could retrain for, the rate of needing to constantly retrain is beginning to get uncomfortable for the average person. Another difference is the if in the previous statement. It seems that AI may not really be generating enough new jobs to cover the ones that it is replacing. This has to result in significant changes in society: shorter work weeks, higher wages, guaranteed income, etc. But that only works if companies become significantly more profitable due to AI. Time will tell. Meanwhile, let’s take a look at some projected time frames for the obsolescence of various professions…
Wait, what? Top 40 song generation? Just listen to this “Nirvana” song created by AI – Drowned in the Sun
Job elimination goes in the upper left of our scenario space. It has high probability because it is already underway. But it is relatively low severity depending on your situation. If you are a language translator, hopefully you’ve seen it coming. If you are a surgeon, you’ve got some time to plan. And, at the end of the day, who wants a 9-5 anyway?
By some estimates, generative transformers might soon replace 40% of existing jobs. However, there are also things that AI is simply not yet very adept at, such as understanding context, holistic decision making, and critical thinking. And then, of course, there are the new jobs, such as data labeling and data scientist, that are emerging in an AI-rich world. The graphic below gives some sense of what is at risk, what isn’t, and what some new opportunities might be.
In the next part, we will examine another condition already underway, that has the potential to be exacerbated by AI – Cultural Demise.
NEXT: How to Survive an AI Apocalypse – Part 6: Cultural Demise
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